Showing posts with label Stock Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market. Show all posts

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Fuel Prices raises fear of deflation

Its not the consumers who fear deflation. Deflation is when the prices of items don't rise significantly. With fuel prices being cut, deflation seems to be eminent and has some people worried. Who are these people, definitely not you and me?

The people who fear deflation are the very people who knock on your door, ambush you outside your office premises, make unsolicited calls on you mobile etc etc. They are the mutual fund, insurance, provident fund companies. Now that you know who they are, the question is why do they fear deflation?

For some years now these companies have been trying to convince you and me not to have our money lying in the savings account because it will loose its value due to high inflation. If the banks give an interest of 4% and inflation is 6%, a Rs 100 note in your bank will have the value of Rs 98 the next year. That why, they say, you should invest your money in (risky) mutual funds that give you more than 10% interest. Thats how they've made money for you and themselves have become giants in the financial world.

Now that inflation is down, they cannot tell you that your money is loosing its value and therefore do not have a valid reason to ask you to gamble your money in the stock market. I don't know what they'll tell you but I do know that they'll persuade the govt to decrease the interest rates to neutralize the growth effect deflation has on your savings. But for now, govt will not listen for now because elections are around the corner and prices must come down for the govt to prove that they've made progress and successfully defended and defeated the spiraling inflation that plagued our country (India) few months back.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Diesel and Petrol Drop and Rise, Drop and Rise... II

....Cont
I don't know when this may happen, if ever. For now, all I can think about is why, more than twice a month, when I go to the petrol pumps, there isn't any petrol available but there is the premium variety like Speed and Power from HP and
BP. Its a scam. Why should I pay Rs 5 more for fuel that is no better for my engine than ordinary petrol. They claim that scientifically, engine performs better. But aren't those under standard test conditions, If standard test conditions are to be believed, karizma would give a mileage of 50km/l (actual 25-35km/l) and eterno would give a mileage of 90km/l (actual 65-75km/l maybe even 80 if ridden at 40kmph and you weigh less that 60kgs)

Bottom line, as I said, its a scam. They might as well market it like, "Sale of First thousand liters - Rs 45 and next thousand lites 55". They are creating a virtual shortage of ordinary fuel in the market where crude prices are at $40 from $140, so they can sell their so-called premium variety and make few more bucks

Want to make money, keep a record of every vehicles fuel consumption and tax them accordingly. More you consume, higher price you pay. If I can ride for 100km within a litre, why should I have to pay the same amount as someone with 20km/l.He is using 5 time more petrol right? Fuel can also be rationed. What is required is a good infrastructure to support these features that are going to support better and responsible driving.

Diesel and Petrol Drop and Rise, Drop and Rise... I

The government is all set to reduce petrol and diesel prices. But they do plan to increase taxes, therefore you and me as a consumer will not be benefited. That's great and here's is what I think about the fuel fiasco

First, there should be no decrease in fuel prices, specially petrol. Diesel may be varied to curb inflation of items that are affected by rising prices of diesel. The problem with fluctuating prices is that the demand fluctuates with in.High price- low demand and low price- high demand. This increases volatility and thus harms the economy. Now they will decrease the prices, people are going to use it liberally and then when crude oil increases as a result of high demand, they increase crude prices and thus demand slows and prices fall.

Second, all private diesel vehicles must be banned. Diesel is the fuel of the masses in India and diesel vehicles that run on cheap diesel steal the benefits (like low ticket fares and goods transportation) that are meant for everyone.

Third, petrol pumps must be run be a local public body.Why should a few benefit from by ripping holes in people's wallet. Currently, a retailer makes a profit of Rs 9.86 a litre on petrol and Rs 3.48 a litre on diesel. If it were state or municipal run, this money could be utilised to build better roads and fund other infrastructure projects (even if there is corruption).
Cont....

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Wipro to postpone joining of fresh recruits to next year

In these economic times, this was expected. Companies are very pessimistic about revenues in the next few months. They don't want to strain their profit margins by taking in freshers. The decision of recruiting freshers is taken months in advance based on the trends at that time. But when there is a sudden change in the environment (for the worse) new recruits are the first victims.

Pratik Kumar, Executive VP - HR, Brand and Corporate Communication, says, “We have 6,000 campus joinees from last year. We were hoping that we should be able to absorb them during the rest of this year. But now our estimate is that it is likely to spill over to next year. For the next year, we have made 8000 offers. By the end of next year we should be able to absorb all of them.”

Kumar says, “We will put learning modules in place so they can start learning even before joining us. So when they join us finally, the period will be truncated from the mandatory 12 weeks to much lesser.”

I am not amused reading these statements. Let me explain why. Wipro decides to come for campus interviews only if it is the first or the second company. They want to take only the best. But is this the way the best are treated? By keeping them at home for a year. Those students who faithfully (or out of sheer stupidity and laziness) decided not to answer any other campus interviews after they were selected by Wipro are screwed. They would surely have got in some other company right? What an opportunity lost!

Adding insult to injury, wipro will be putting them through "learning modules". This is just a way of saying "Instead of you joining and us having to pay you while you are on training for a couple of months and while you are on the bench for another 4-8 months, you can just sit at home and get trained. In this way, we save money and if the situation turns from bad to worse, we wont call you(no hire-no layoff"

My message to wipro : Great strategy guys!
My message to Freshers : Keep all your options open till the very end!

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Govt Not Selling Satyam

Govt issued a statement that it wont sell Satyam and it would rather see it stand on its own feet. This is good news for the 40000 employees, some of which will be surely axed if bought by another. I sincerely hope that the Govt has confidence in the business prospects of the company and is not just trying to save those jobs (cause if there are, they're just delaying the inevitable)
 

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Subhiksha (salaries) hamara adikhar hai

Remember Subhiksha the retail store? The ad stated that Subhiksha hamara adikhar hai (Subhiksha is my right). This was a retail store chain that everything it sold was cheaper than that available anywhere else. That may be so but any company shouldn't charge so less that they dont make enough profits to pay their employees.

Salaries were not paid since October and the company sent a letter on new year day saying that the last two days of the year were "madly action packed" and they had to ensure that bank facilities of Rs 125 crore is not endangered. It further sets the time frame in which the money due for salaries and rent will be released, giving a total time frame of 3–4–5 days, not more.

Hmm. really WOW. Imaging the joy of the employees who haven't been able to celebrate Diwali and Christmas and on new year day, the employee gifts them a letter of assurance. Its been 20 days and still no salary.
Management claims that they they are unaware of any such case. I wonder if they have got their salary?

I had a dejavoo when I heard this. It will be interesting to see what happens. Could this be another Satyam? Only time, pay slips and pink slips will tell.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Joke of the day:Blonds, Santa and now Raju, Satyam.

The news is getting boring.Satyam Computer founder B Ramalinga Raju's fraud may have resulted in employees bailing and clients ditching Satyam but we've all heard that and it has become yesterdays news.

From the ashes of the controversy sprung out SMSs that spread like wild fire and expressions or slang that will end up in the Oxford Dictionary. Here is one such term or expression

Satyamisation: 1)inflating profits,2) finding it tough to get a job because of bad reputation of their employers(and quitting).
Examples

"Im am filing a law suit agained by employer. Working under him has caused me distress, depression and left me Satyamised"
"(On resume or in interview) Reason for Leaving the job : Ive been Satyamised (not laid off)"

Husband to the judge:"Your Honour, I want to divorse my wife. Her love for me was Satyamised" Wife : "So was his manhood"


The popular nursery rhyme, 'Johny, Johny, Yes Papa' has made way for "Raju Raju, Yes Baba, Cheating us, No Baba, Telling Lies, No Baba, Open your accounts, Ha Ha Ha".

Another rhyme, 'Humpty Dumpty, sat on a wall" has been popularized even more with its Raju version: "Raju Raju sat up on the wall, Raju Raju had a great fall, Balance sheet died, shareholders cried, Raju Raju made a big fraud."

An SMS doing the rounds has a new full-form for Satyam: 'Stealing And Transferring Your All Money'.
One message points towards famous film-maker Ram Gopal Verma preparing to make a movie on the Satyam saga: It goes on to say that Varma, who was sighted inside Taj Hotel, Mumbai, after terror attacks there, was seen at Satyam headquarters in Hyderabad last week.

An age-old TV commercial of a toothpaste has also been pulled out due to a Raju connection. In its new avatar, Masterji says, "Raju tumhare daant toh motiyo se chamak rahe hain? (Raju, your teeth are sparkling like pearls), to which Raju replies "Chamke kyu na? maine apni hi company ka paisa jo khaaya hai (Why wont they sparkle, I have gobbled up my own firm's money).

And Finally : Do you feel this blog is Satyamised ?

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Are Indexes like Sensex and Nifty Reflective of the Overall Markets

Indices like Sensex, Nifty are a cumulative sum of products of a group of companies and their market cap(relative). The group of companies are the best performing companies in the market. But, like in the case of Satyam, just because the stock price of the company dropped within a few weeks, does it deserve to be removed from the list that make up the index. I think not.

For one thing a share price is not a definite indicator of the company's underlying value. Share prices are inflated and deflated by greed and fear respectively. Once should have checked the quarter on quarter result before replacing a company like satyam. I don't know everything that went into the decision of replacing Satyam. But one thing I can say for sure is that, if any other company is delisted just because the prices fell over few weeks,is that the index becomes a fools index only meant to mislead the public by using the best performing stock to hide the not so well performing ones.

On a final note, if a stock, which has its price free falling, delisted, the companies that have its prices skyrocket without any explanation, should also be delisted. Any statistician will tell you that while analysing readings of an experiment(like measuring temperature), you must eliminate the lower 5% and higher 5% because they could be unexplained spikes.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Govt awarding Satyam 2000Cr for its mess

I can understand the 60000Cr package given to farmers who cant repay their loans. Afterall agriculture is the backbone of our economy. But what I cant understand, if CNN-IBN report is to be believed,  is why Rs 2000Cr of taxpayers money is being given to one company that may or may not exits in 2 years. They have made mistakes and the have to pay the price. It may sound harsh but the employees were well paid and they should have been smart enough to save for times like these.These guys are skilled and highly skilled workforce. Having said that, most of them will need money to repay their loans and credit card debts; money they borrowed to live in luxury assuming their company is invincible and their job are secure. Those who are concerned about their welfare should also be concerned about those in poverty and are starving.

I'm not a communist but if the govt should act like any other corporate and acquire a share of the company and run it like public sector bank. Make it an investment. Otherwise it just seems that(which is an obvious fact anyway) the govt is creating a vote-bank for the next elections

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

One Reason Why Citibank is falling.

Citibank never targeted the right customer segment. In India, all they targeted was a corporate account, so they could get their hands on loads of cash, and salary account, so they could hold on to the same loads of cash, just in a different account. If a average person wanted to open an account, they were ignored or  treated with arrogance and disrespect. It took my friend nearly 40 days to open a Suvidha account. That is compared to a 3 day it took me to open a salary account.

The problem with this strategy is that holding on to corporate cash is not easy. It comes in as fast as it goes out. Also the bank is obliged to give loans. On the other hand, an average Indian want to save. They would put money in the bank at let it remain there for years. The same money could be given to deserving companies with which the banks would earn. The bottom line is that the common man is loyal and in a country like India you cannot refuse deposits made by the common man. Its because of small busniess and vendors, savings of hard earned individuals etc is the reason why most banks in India are growing at a rapid pace.

No matter in what business you are you have to segment the market and tailor you products for each segment. It doesn't matter how profitable one is over the other. Citibank's narrow-minded approach of targeting just the (risky) upper segment has lead to it downfall.

Tata Telcon Shutting Jamshedpur plant and the Stock Market

Tata Motor's subsidiary Telco Construction Equipment Company (Telcon) today announced closure of its Jamshedpur plant from January 14 for four days, the second time in this month on slump in demand.  Whatever be the reason or excuse, I wonder why should the news be so public. Could there be something more sinister going on? The Satyam fiasco has made me suspicious of any and every piece of news about a company.

Anticipating that the prevailing global economic slowdown was unlikely to improve at least in this financial year, Yadav, also the company spokesman here said, Telcon has reduced its production target to  65 units each of heavy vehicles like crane and excavator for January and February. But what happens to the stock price? Could it be that this decision, that maybe taken based on genuine reasons, could be must to manipulate stock prices and thereby some amount of profiteering the the decision makers. Only time will tell. For now we just have to see whether or not the BSE and NSE ticker goes down tomorow and if this news has anything to do with it.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Advertisers Committing Moral Pedophilia!

Have you seen advertisements these days. Dont you think there are too many kids in these ads. Gone are the days when children used to be sparingly used for chocolates, candy and nutritional drinks, biscuits, and so on: stuff that were only meant to be consumed by kids. People believed in the evil eye and thought that displaying their kids in public, let alone TV will cause harm as a result of envy of others. But today kids are seen as an alternate income source of the family, atleast the cute and talented ones(i didnt mention smart since those kids are only supposed to study).

Im not against kids working, I believe it bring discipline. But what I hate these days is that the way kids are used to bring out emotions in brands that first, dont require kids and second, the product needs to be chosen on logic not emotion. Insurance is just one product. Every brand is competing amongst each other, not in the benefits of their product (and what clauses they hide) but in how much emotion and GUILT they can bring in out in the viewer. If you dont insure, your daughter (and not son) wont have money to pay for their education, you family wont be able to live a happy life, your wife wont be able to afford your daughters marriage etc etc. Not just that, you are branded as smart (ICICI prudential advertisement) if you select their product; else it implies you are dumb.

And what about cell phones (Reliance, Vodaphone) and other products like electronics(LG, Samsung), toothpastes(close-up, miswak pepsodent etc) even cement(Ambuja Cement). I feel companies are trying to show innocent faces on Television to show how honest and innocent they are. That they care about you like a parent cares for their child. We all know that is far away from the truth unless you are talking about turtle parents.

I hate govt regulation but I cant help but wonder whether in this case it is required. Then again nothing is enforced in India and there are always crack through which you can getaway with anything.

An undeniable fact is that advertisers have lost their creative neurons and are stooping to new lows. They have run out of ideas. All that they can use is Sex, Violence(in most bike ads like Pulser, Hero Honda etc) and Children. Although it hasnt happened till now, its just a matter of time that some imbecile with a deadline and without new ideas will combine all three.

Can we turn away from them, yes and no. Eitherway if this doesnt work and some day it wont, advertisers will seek new ways of attracting and attaching customers to their brands. Untill then one things for sure, there are a lot of parent who are smiling away to their bank accounts.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Govt MAY not take any action against oil PSUs mgmt

This was the headlines I read on Business Standard RSS feed. Obviously the wont take any action because of political constraints. After all being a Hero and delivering justice does not win you votes. But whatever may be the cause if the strike, the whole thing could have been avoided if we had an efficient judicial system.

Take a look at America. These strikes never take place because employees can sue their employers and have the entire conflict settled in days. I dont like strikes but what Ive learnt from the strikes Ive participated in during my college days(4 in all and one of them hunger strike), there is no other way you can have your voice heard.

Although the decision of the Govnt not to pursue the Oil PSUs is right, I hope they spend some time and money improving our judicial system and making it efficient and therefore we can get speedy justice.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

No Role of Andra Govt In Satyam Scam

Ya Right! that is unbelievable and impossible. When there is money involved how can there be no politicians. Afterall, what did Raju do with all that money? He had to have given it away directly or indirectly to fund his infrastructure company,and where there is land and construction involved there has to be politicians involved. It may be that they didnt know about the what went on in Satyam but they have surely reaped its benifits

Satyam and the Common Man

We all know what happened to Saytam. Actually we dont. We are just feeling the aftermath of it. Two days ago I went to buy DVDs at my regular merchant. His shop is filled with anything and everything related to computers. Like a sage in the Himalayas, he sits in the middle of his goods. Today he was a bit upset. No, he was damn upset. He was on the phone arguing with his broker. Upon some pep talk he relieved that he invested 2laks in Satyam when the price was Rs 40. At the time we spoke it was Rs 19. He was trying to convince his broker to extend his margins so he could go long with fresh stock and cover his loses. Obviously the broker didn't agree and why should he. My merchant is just one of the buffoons who made a suicidal gamble on the stock that is falling faster than the asteroid that stuck earth during the dinosaurs. After listening to him I realized that not all dinosaurs went extinct. They have evolved into what we call ordinary investors (who invest without researching the company).

Ramalingam Raju is not the only one to blame. Investors are at fault too. Especially those who pushed satyam prices from Rs 600 to Rs 800 where it peaked. And those who still purchased when the prices were falling should be banned from trading. Ofcourse, if they are banned then how will the professional trader make money. If nothing else, the satyam debacle has thought us one thing that the world will continue to revolve round the sun and people will continue to revolve round the stock market, not to increase their wealth, but to give it away to smart traders.